Daft question #3 – Are bloggers influential?

I get asked this all the time – are bloggers influential?

The only polite response I use is to answer with a question – “Influential on whom?”

In a client project we did earlier this year, there were zero influential bloggers (on UK CIOs in large enterprises).

In a case study for the book, there were dozen of influential bloggers (on tech-focused database administrators).

So the next time you see this sort of nonsense, ask yourself “Influential on whom?”

Then worry about how you might measure influence (clue: it’s not the number of links…).

The most important question about influence

It’s not about who has the influence.

The question is, influence on whom?

Most studies of influencers are lists of important or high profile people. Fair enough, except there is no discussion on the scope of their influence. What decisions are impacted by their influence? How can you tap into their influence? Are these influencers influencing my customers?

Here’s another example of a nicely researched and presented example, this time looking at the top 50 influential bloggers (allegedly). Have a look through, then count how many bloggers on list do you think are influencing your target market today. My prediction is, not many.

If you start Influencer Marketing by looking for people you think are influential you end up missing the point. It’s not for you to decide.

Instead, put yourself in the shoes of your customer. Who are they listening to? What do they read? Who are they following? My expereince is that you can only do this by asking them.

Otherwise, you’re just guessing, and probably guessing wrongly.

More on the influence of blogging

Who’s got time to blog? It’s been 2 weeks since my last post (forgive me for I have sinned…). But I’ve been busy doing … errr … work. Two major deliveries coinciding, plus recruitment and web site redesign has distracted me somewhat, and diverted me from the blog task (which I tend to fit in where I can anyway).

Importantly, I haven’t had the time to read other people’s stuff, which is how I form opinions, so nothing to rant about.

I’m coming to the impression that people who blog either don’t have regular (or full) jobs, or that blogging is their job. It’s no coincidence that most blogger give up after six months – they just don’t have the time. When Scoble et al tell us that you’ve got to blog often (= daily) it’s no wonder that most succumb to normality.

This then limits the influence that blogs can have. It’s the people who have “proper” jobs – consultants, analysts, regulators, academics, etc – that carry most influence. From Influencer50 research, we see that few blogs have influence, and those that do come from other sources. Influencers blog, more than bloggers influence.

The influence of blogs

At the recent Unicom conference on Social Network Tools, I showed a chart illustrating the declining influence of analysts and journalists on IT decision makers (ITDM). The chart also showed the recent increase in influence of bloggers. The chart caused a bit of a stir.

Our research shows that the average ITDM apportions no more than 45% of influence to analysts and journalists. The remaining influence is spread over numerous influencer types. Bloggers show the biggest increase, from zero in 2004 to 8% in 2006.

Stowe Boyd, a blogging guru, claimed in the conference that in the US the influence of blogs now exceeds that of analysts and journalists. Can this be true?

Firstly, there is some overlap between the two communities. For example, Forrester’s Charlene Li and Business Week’s Stephen Baker have highly rated blogs. It will be interesting to watch the transition from traditional analyst/journalists media (reports, newspapers, etc) to blogs.

Secondly, from my (so far, limited) look at blogs, the main audience for bloggers is … other bloggers. Are ITDMs reading blogs? Do CEOs read blogs? Or are they still influenced by more traditional sources? Clearly it depends on the individual and the market. But my thinking is that the influence of blogging is limited, other than within the blogosphere.

Finally, are we seeing the emergence of a truly new type of influencer – the blogger? Or are we seeing the use of a new medium (the blog) which allows existing influencers to become more obvious?

My sense is that blogging and other social networking tools are similar to the worldwide web in the mid-1990s. Those businesses that colonised the early web pioneered the new media, worried the old guard and promised to the change the business world (remember the “New Economy”?). But most early adopters failed, and the web became a mainstream tool for all – nearly every business now has a web site.

So blogging will, in time, be done by everyone (or every business). It’s this interim, disruptive time that makes blogging interesting now. Geoffrey Moore would say that blogging is in “the chasm,” – blogging is about to climb out into mainstream adoption. And its distinct influence will dissipate accordingly.